PURDUE WOMENS BASKETBALL:
GAZING INTO THE CRYSTAL BUBBLE, PART III: The Big Picture


Published: 2/25/2010
Author: Jimmy_D
© Old Gold Free Press Columnists

Installment 1: The Big Picture

Welcome to the first installment of “Life on the Bubble in February: Where Fashion and Sport Meet”. Heidi Klum, super model / TV producer / entrepreneur, states, as she opens each segment of Project Runway, “In fashion, one week you’re in, the next week, you’re out.” In a sentence, that defines ‘Life on the Bubble in February’.

The final numbers remain the same – 31 slots for conference tournament winners, 33 at-large spots available to everyone else. Let’s stay with a 27 / 6 BCS / non-BCS allocation.

First, the non-BCS Conference teams. Outside of the Atlantic 10 (Xavier, Dayton and Temple) and America East (Hartford and Vermont), only TCU, Gonzaga, James Madison and, perhaps, Fresno St and Middle Tennessee St may have a realistic shot at getting an invite without a conference tournament trophy in hand. In total, that is ten potential teams from seven different conferences. So the 27 / 6 allocation could absorb a couple of conference tournament upsets and still work.


I see 26 BCS Conference teams that are probably already in, no matter what happens at this late stage of the season. Take Oklahoma St, North Carolina and Georgia. They are currently in freefalls that are almost as mesmerizing as staring at an accident on the freeway. The Cowgirls have lost five in a row, and the losing streak could reach nine games by the time the regular season ends. The Tarheels have lost six out of their last seven, needing overtime to secure a victory at Wake Forest. With remaining games @Georgia Tech and at home vs. Duke, that could stretch to losing eight of their last nine. And Georgia, at 2-6 in their last eight games, had best be careful @South Carolina, before finishing with Arkansas at home. And yet, they are all probably still in. Here are the teams:

Big East (5) UConn, Georgetown, Notre Dame, St. John’s, West Virginia

ACC (4) Duke, Florida St, North Carolina, Virginia

Big 12 (7) Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Baylor, Texas, Texas A&M, Iowa St

SEC (5) Tennessee, Georgia, LSU, Kentucky, Vanderbilt

Big 10 (3) Ohio St, Michigan St, Wisconsin

Pac 10 (2) Stanford, UCLA

Subtract out your six conference tournament winners and you have 20 of your 33 at-large teams, leaving a total of 13 slots available. Subtract out five or six non-BCS invitations, and you have seven or eight available slots. The following 16 teams could be considered your current residents in Bubble Land:
Big East (3) Rutgers, DePaul, Syracuse

ACC (4) Boston College, Maryland, NC State, Miami, Fl

Big 12 (2) Kansas, Texas Tech

SEC (2) Mississippi St, South Carolina

Big 10 (4) Michigan, Iowa, Penn St, Purdue

Pac 10 (1) USC

Sixteen teams, and seven, maybe eight slots. At this point, the game plan is pretty simple: “Just win, baby, win.”

Next: Installment 2: A Review of Bubble Teams from the Big East, the ACC and the Big 12